Turkey economy to grow 1 percent this year, business group says

Turkey’s economy will probably expand by about 1 percent in 2019, a leading business group said.

There is a revival in consumption and in production, Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu, head of the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) said in a speech in northwest Turkey on Friday, according to Dünya newspaper.

“We expect that the economy will post high growth in the final quarter of the year,” Hisarcıklıoğlu said, pointing to a decline in interest rates and an improvement in key indicators of economic confidence.

Hisarcıklıoğlu spoke the day after Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said Turkey would post positive economic growth this year. Initial indicators showed economic activity picking up in November and December, he said in the Black Sea province of Trabzon. The economy contracted by an annual 1.9 percent in the first half of 2019.

The predictions of Hisarcıklıoğlu and Albayrak are more optimistic than those of many economists and key international organisations. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimated that the economy would contract by 0.2 percent in a report published this week.

The economy will expand by 0.1 percent this year and by 3 percent in 2020, according to the mean estimate of 88 experts, including 66 from the financial sector, published in the central bank’s monthly survey of expectations for October.