Nov 08 2019

Turkish lira set to end 2019 as worst performer after peso

The Turkish lira will probably end 2019 as the second-worst performing currency in major emerging markets, Reuters reported.

Declines for the lira, totalling about 8 percent so far this year, will only be outstripped by those for the Argentinian peso, Reuters said citing polls it conducted.

Emerging markets are heading into 2020 as global economic growth slows and amid uncertainty over a trade war between the United States and China, which is currently in a lull. U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that he may sign a trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"We retain our scepticism that over the mid-term horizon emerging markets will be able to hold to their gains (as) 2020 is likely to be a challenging year for the global economy," said Piotr Matys, senior emerging markets strategist at Rabobank, according to Reuters.

"That said, the prospect of a short-term trade truce could fuel capital inflows to emerging markets over the short-term horizon, leading to further currency gains," he said.

The lira is expected to trade at 6.05 per dollar by the end of December and at 6.41 against the U.S. currency in 12 months, according to the latest monthly central bank survey of economic expectations. It fell 0.2 percent to 5.76 per dollar on Friday.

The Russian ruble, which has gained about 8 percent this year, may end 2019 as the best-performing emerging market currency, Reuters said.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-forex-poll-emerging/trade-truce-may-not-be-enough-to-ignite-emerging-market-currencies-reuters-poll-idUSKBN1XH1EK